Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core elements that affect a country's economy and currency exchange rate changes. It aims to predict exchange rate changes and market trends in a certain economic cycle by analyzing a series of economic indicators, government policies and events.
Fundamental data not only tells us about the current market situation, but more importantly, it helps us predict the future market development.
US Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (PCE)
The data is a measure of the extent to which US consumers have experienced average consumer spending over the course of a month. It is the main indicator of inflation adopted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the decision-making body of the Federal Reserve.
The price index after “flat reduction” refers to the adjustment of nominal personal consumption expenditure expressed in currency to actual personal consumption expenditure. This is because consumer spending habits change with the price of goods and services, for example, consumers
Will abandon the purchase of goods at a higher price, and instead buy similar products (ie substitutes) that are relatively inexpensive.
Therefore, compared with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (PCE) is more likely to enter the market to reflect consumer spending. And the consumer price index does not take into account the price of the goods being replaced, so often
Higher than the actual consumption expenditure level and changes recorded by the personal consumption expenditure deflator.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Announcement address: http://www.bea.gov
US Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index is a measure of the price changes of commodity producers in all stages of US primary market production and is an important indicator of commodity inflation pressure.
PPI Excluding Food & Energy is a measure of the price change of a manufacturer after deducting food and energy in all stages of production in the primary market in the United States. Because food and energy are susceptible to seasonal factors, they may distort the trend and development of producer price indices. After deducting food and energy, it can more accurately reflect the status of producer prices.
If the index is higher than expected, it will be positive (or bullish), and if the data is lower than expected, it will be negative (or bearish).
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor
US Construction Permit
Building Permits: The data shows the number of new project approvals. It reflects the extent of corporate investment activities (US economic development). It has a certain impact on the dollar's movements.
The faster the number of building permits grows, the more support (or long) the dollar can be.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: US Department of Commerce US Census Bureau
US housing starts
Housing Starts: The US Department of Commerce, the US Census Bureau's new housing starts data refers to tracking the number of single residential areas or buildings under construction. Each house and each individual apartment in the survey was counted as a start-up, which included all private and public housing. It reflects the level of activity in the US housing market, which is a very important economic indicator because the level of activity of new housing starts directly affects the economic development cycle.
If the published data is recorded at a high level, it will be positive (or long), and vice versa (or short).
Importance: ★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: US Department of Commerce (US Census Bureau)
US capacity utilization
US Capacity Utilization (ratio)
Capacity utilization, also called equipment utilization, is the ratio of total industrial output to production equipment. When the data was counted, it covered eight projects including manufacturing, mining, utilities, durable goods, non-durable goods, basic metals, automotive and gasoline. Represents the degree of capacity utilization of the above industries.
When the capacity utilization rate exceeds 95%, the utilization rate of the equipment is close to the whole. The inflation pressure will rise rapidly with the capacity being unable to cope with. In the case that the market expects the interest rate to rise, it is profitable for a country's currency. Conversely, if the capacity utilization rate is below 90% and continues to decline, it means that the equipment is idle and the economy is declining. If the market expects the interest rate to fall, the country's currency is bad. The market generally attaches the most importance to US capacity utilization data.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Federal Reserve
Announcement address: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current
American industrial output
US Industrial Production
Industrial output is a measure of changes in manufacturing, mining, and public utility output. Because this value reflects the degree of change in industrial output rather than in monetary units, this value is considered to be unaffected by inflation and thus better reflects the current state of the US industry. Although industrial output accounts for a small proportion of US gross domestic product (GDP), the industrial sector is more susceptible to interest rate and consumer demand than other sectors of the economy, and the industrial sector is also the most volatile part of GDP. . Therefore, the ability to accurately understand the trend of industrial output will be very important to predict GDP. A high or growing industrial output level indicates economic growth. However, an overheated level of industrial output will lead to inflation.
Because of seasonal and weather factors, this value has a large amplitude every month. Because of this factor, this value has little effect on the US dollar. This value is expressed as a weighted average percentage.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Federal Reserve
Announcement address: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current
US Foreign Securities Purchase (TIC)
This data summarizes the stocks, bonds, and money market funds flowing into the US and out of the US. This data is actually the difference between the amount of foreign bonds purchased by the United States and the amount of foreign purchases of US bonds. It is generally denominated in millions of dollars. TIC represents the international capital reserve, which plays a pivotal role in the US capital account, and it is also a quantitative measure of foreign investment demand in the United States.
Positive values indicate that capital entering the United States is more than outflows, indicating that the amount of US securities sold abroad exceeds the amount of foreign securities purchased by the United States. This also shows that the US securities market has a comparative advantage over other countries' markets. TIC is extremely important to the trade deficit, and positive values can offset the effects of trade weakness to some extent, and vice versa. So a negative TIC will be bad for the dollar.
A very important feature of TIC is that asset holders are important to TIC. Government and private investors, especially a strong government holding dollar-dominated assets, suggest that the dollar value will converge to the optimal value, as this shows the government's confidence in the stability of the dollar. The largest holders of dollar-dominated property are often the Chinese and Japanese governments. The reduction in demand for US dollar assets by these two governments will largely null the dollar.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announcement address: http://www.treasury.gov/tic/ticsec2.html
U.S. pending home sales
US Pending Home Sales USD Pending Home Sales
The statistics show the current situation of single-family households signing the contract for the sale of houses. If the home sales contract has been signed and the transaction has not been finalized, the home is pending, that is, the sale is pending.
Usually, such a house will be sold within one or two months after signing the sale contract. Pending home sales data is based on uncompleted sales of existing homes. The published monthly rate value and annual rate value represent the percentage change of the present value relative to the previous value.
This data is seen as a leading indicator of the US housing market and economic conditions. The housing market is closely related to the economic situation, especially when the economic situation turns a corner. Specifically, the sharp drop in housing demand is seen as a warning before the economy enters the recession, because consumers' willingness to buy homes will be significantly smaller when interest rates are too high, personal disposable income is low, and confidence is low. On the contrary, the recovery of the housing market indicates a recovery in the economy.
The trend of the housing market has an important impact on the development of the US economy, so it usually has a certain impact on the US dollar. If the data is better than the predicted or pre-value, it will help the dollar rise in the long run, but in the short term, the dollar's hedging effect will make it fall against non-US currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than the predicted or pre-value, in the short term, it will raise the market's risk aversion, making the dollar higher against other currencies.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: National Association of Realtors
Announcement address: http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/pages/pHSdata
US personal income
Personal Income
The data is the sum of personal income, including wages and salaries (56%), transfer payments (13%), interest income (11%), owner income (8%), stock dividends (4.4%), rental income ( 1.4%), and others (6.2%), weighted the results to get results.
Since wages and salaries account for a large portion of personal income, this value is somewhat forward-looking for employment in the United States. However, since the release of personal income is after employment-related hotspot data, the market's response to it is usually not obvious.
This data reflects the purchasing power of consumers in the country and predicts changes in consumer demand for goods and services in the future. It is also an important indicator for measuring the health of the economy. Because the growth of personal income contributes to the increase of personal consumption, thereby promoting the growth of output and promoting the pace of the US economy.
If personal income is better than the predicted value or the previous value, it implies the possibility of an increase in personal consumption expenditure, stimulating domestic demand, driving the recovery of the US economy, and also having a positive effect on interest rate hike expectations. However, in the short-term, for the release of favorable domestic data, the dollar's hedging effect will push up the market's risk appetite, causing the dollar to fall against other currencies.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, US Department of Commerce
Published address: http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/home/personalincome.htm
US factory order
Factory Orders, published by the US Census Bureau, include new orders announced by US manufacturing (including durable goods orders and non-durable goods orders), undelivered orders, and inventory and sales, which reflect US industrial production and Sales. This indicator reflects the good or bad situation of manufacturing production. Manufacturers of manufacturing usually arrange production after receiving orders, so this indicator is also considered as a sign of the next production activity. In factory orders, the new order quantity can be regarded as a demand forecast, while the shipment can be regarded as an indicator of the supply response. The market is generally used to compare the country's demand and supply gap. When the order is greatly reduced, it reflects the weak manufacturing industry, and the next period of production decline, which may lead to an increase in unemployment rate and a slowdown in economic development, which will have a negative impact on the US dollar.
However, since US durable goods orders are announced one week earlier than factory orders, and durable goods orders account for more than half of factory orders, the announcement of factory orders is often ignored by the market.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: US Census Bureau
Announcement address: www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/prel/index.htm
US domestic purchasing price index
The US Price Index is published by the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis to assess changes in the prices of goods and services. The rise in the domestic purchase price index suggests that inflationary pressures are increasing, which may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates. This index is not the same as other estimates of inflation, because the domestic PPI is a product that includes all GDP, but does not include all factors that affect the import price. Moreover, the data is published every four months, so its timeliness is not as good as other types of data.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: announced every four months
Announced by: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce
Announcement address: http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/home/GDP.htm
US trade account
US Trade Account US Trade Account Data is published by the Bureau of Commerce Analysis, Department of Commerce. It represents the difference between the total value of US imports and exports and services. The trade account is the most important part of the US balance of payments, and the data will have a big impact on the value of the dollar.
A positive trade account (trade surplus) indicates that funds flowing into the United States are greater than funds flowing out of the United States, and such inflows will stimulate the appreciation of the dollar; otherwise, it will be negative for the dollar.
Importance: ★★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce
Announcement address: http://www.bea.gov/bea/di/home/trade.htm
US gross domestic product
GDP refers to the total value of goods, services and construction products in the United States for a certain period of time. It is an important indicator of the overall economic activity and health of the United States. Strong GDP data indicates that economic activity is increasing, often promoting trade and foreign investment and increasing demand for the US dollar. Higher-than-expected GDP data will generally benefit more dollars, and vice versa.
The GDP is calculated as follows: gross domestic product = total consumption + total investment + government expenditure + net export
Importance: ★★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Announcement address: http://www.bea.gov/
US personal consumption expenditure
Personal consumption Expenditure refers to the average cost spent by a consumer within one month. Among them, the core personal consumption expenditure is deducted from the most volatile seasonal factors such as food and energy. After eliminating food and energy, it can more accurately reflect the individual consumer expenditure. It is an important indicator for the Fed to measure inflation. If the index is high, it will be positive (or bullish). If the data is lower than expected, it will be weak (or bearish).
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Announcement address: http://www.bea.gov/
ADP employment changes
The ADP Employment Change data released by the American Automated Data Processing Company measures the change in employment in the United States. In general, an increase in employment means that consumers have the potential to increase spending and thus stimulate economic growth. Therefore, if the published data is higher than expected, it will be positive or bullish for the US dollar. If the data is lower than expected, it will suppress or bear the US dollar.
Importance: ★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: American Automated Data Processing Company ADP, Automatic Data processing, Inc
Announcement address: http://ADPemploymentreport.com/
MBA Mortgage Application
The MBA Mortgage Applications index is an assessment of the number of different types of mortgage applications. It is considered to be the leading indicator for evaluating the US housing market. The large increase in the number of mortgage applications means the healthy development of the housing market and the acceleration of the overall economic development of the United States. Therefore, if the published data is higher than expected, it will benefit the US dollar, and if it is lower than expected, it will benefit the US dollar.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: National Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Bankers Association
Announcement address: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/pressCenter
US Consumer Confidence Index
The consumer confidence index consists of the business environment, employment rate and personal income. According to thousands of representative mail sample studies, the Consumer Confidence Index has the largest sample size in the United States. Consumer confidence levels are often tied to spending power. For example, consumer confidence is rising while consumer spending is on the rise. Some analysts criticize the greater volatility of the consumer confidence index and the weaker household spending correlations, and tend to use the University of Michigan index. The fluctuations in the consumer confidence index are due to two factors: the size and timing of their collection. The Consumer Confidence Index survey group changes the database every month and uses the new sample group as the survey object. In addition, the questionnaire is mainly aimed at the market's expectations for the next six months, which is relatively short. In contrast, the Michigan survey in the United States focuses on consumer expectations for the next one to five years, and the longer forecast period has a stabilizing effect on the forecast.
Importance: ★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Conference Board
Announcement address: http://www.conference-board.org/
S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index measures changes in the US housing market in 20 regions, reflecting the health of the US housing market. In general, the rise in the index is good news for the dollar, but the scope of the impact is very limited.
Importance: ★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Standard & Poor's Stand & Poor
Announcement address: www2.standardandpoors.com
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity is a survey of the Texas manufacturing outlook by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. This index was compiled by 99 Texas manufacturers on their output, employment, orders, prices, and other aspects of increase, decrease, or retention in the previous month. It is a timely assessment of plant activity. The rise in this indicator is a good news for the dollar and the US economy, but the indicator has little impact on the dollar.
Importance: ★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Announcement address: http://www.dallasfed.org/data/outlook/index.html
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a weighted average of 85 existing economic activity indicators in the United States, covering production and income, employment, personal consumption, housing, manufacturing, Trade sales, inventory and orders are designed to better measure the pressures of overall economic activity and inflation. The indicator is delimited by 0. If the value is above 0, it indicates that the current economic growth is higher than the potential of long-term economic growth, and vice versa. In general, the rise in this indicator is a good news for the dollar and the US economy. The data has been lagging behind for about a month and is relatively new. It has not yet gained a large recognition in the financial market and has little impact on the US dollar.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago
Announcement address: http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/cfnai.cfm
US new home sales
New Home Sales data for new home sales is a real-time indicator of the sales of new residential buildings in the housing market. New home sales often lead to a series of consumer behaviors, and the release of this data will have a big impact on the market. Because when consumers buy new homes, they often accompany other products such as furniture and decoration.
As a result, the growth in new home consumption will result in changes in related products, services and employment relationships. In general, housing market conditions can be reflected in a series of reports on the construction and sale of housing. The first is the construction permit, which will result in construction costs, followed by loan applications and new home sales, and finally second-hand home sales. New home sales are a good indicator of a good economic turning point. Consumers will only choose to buy a new home if they have sufficient deposits or high expectations. From historical data, when economic growth slows, new home sales are the first to change data. New home sales will grow solidly as the economy recovers from recession and wage income begins to rise.
Therefore, the growth of new home sales is good news for the US dollar, and vice versa for the US dollar.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: US Census Bureau
Announcement address: http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html
US existing home sales data
Existing Home Sales data is used to assess the current state of the housing market. The housing market is considered to be an indispensable factor in the economic development of the United States, so this data will have an impact on the US dollar. If the published data is better than expected, it will benefit the US dollar. Conversely, if the published data is lower than expected, it will be negative for the US dollar.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: National Association of Realtors
Announcement address: http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata
US durable goods orders
Durable Goods generally refers to consumer products that can be used for more than three years, such as cars, televisions, and various home appliances.
Such products often require a large investment, thus reflecting the buyer's optimistic level of consumption. Durable goods orders are highly sensitive to economic changes. When consumers have doubts about the economic environment, they will first reduce their consumption of durable goods and instead purchase essential necessities. Conversely, when consumers are optimistic about the economic environment, the consumption of durable goods will rise sharply. Therefore, the amount of durable goods orders can be used as a leading indicator to predict the trend of the US economy.
Data is reported as a percentage change in the percentage of the ring.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: US Census Bureau
Announcement address: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/adv/
Durable goods orders to remove transportation products
Durable goods orders are also announced in the form of Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation. This is because the prices of civilian cars and aircraft are relatively high, and the order quantity tends to be special, and the volatility not related to the economic situation will be distorted. The actual number of durable goods orders. As a result, transportation product orders are removed, providing a more accurate amount of durable goods orders.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: US Census Bureau
Announcement address: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/adv/
US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
The US interest rate decision Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision was announced by the Federal Reserve's Open Market Operations Committee FOMC. The main task of this committee is to establish a monetary policy stance by adjusting overnight lending rates. The overnight lending rate is the basis of the short-term lending rate. The Fed attempts to influence the price level through this mechanism, thereby keeping inflation within the target range while maintaining stable economic growth and employment levels.
If interest rates rise, the dollar will rise against non-US currencies, as the yield of dollar assets will rise, which will attract foreign funds into the United States, which will benefit the dollar.
If the interest rate is lowered, this is bad news for the dollar. Because the downward revision of interest rates represents a recession in the economy, the Fed is forced to either tighten monetary policy or stimulate the economic market to stimulate growth.
If the interest rate remains the same, the market reaction will be more peaceful.
Importance: ★★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
Published address: http://federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm
US MBA Mortgage Application
The US MBA Mortgage Applications MBA Mortgage Applications is published by the National Association of Mortgage Bankers, an index that evaluates the number of different types of mortgage applications. It is considered to be the leading indicator for evaluating the US housing market. The large increase in the number of mortgage applications means the healthy development of the housing market and the acceleration of the overall economic development of the United States. Because the good data will stimulate the market's risk preferences, which in turn will be negative for the US dollar; otherwise it will be bad.
Importance: ★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
Announcement address: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/pressCenter
US MBA Mortgage Application
The US MBA Mortgage Applications MBA Mortgage Applications is published by the National Association of Mortgage Bankers, an index that evaluates the number of different types of mortgage applications. It is considered to be the leading indicator for evaluating the US housing market. The large increase in the number of mortgage applications means the healthy development of the housing market and the acceleration of the overall economic development of the United States. Because the good data will stimulate the market's risk preferences, which in turn will be negative for the US dollar; otherwise it will be bad.
Importance: ★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
Announcement address: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/pressCenter
US House Price Index
The US House Price Index House Price Index is also published by the US Federal Housing Enterprise Inspectorate. As the official housing price index published by the US, it is an assessment of the price changes in the US real estate market. It is considered to be the most accurate of all kinds of house price statistics. It has a wide influence in the US real estate industry because it tracks the same real estate. Time-lapse sales and refinancing, which is one of the important economic indicators, because the real estate market is a major pillar of the US economy.
If the actual value is better than the expected value or the previous value, it indicates that the US real estate market is in good condition, and the bearish dollar is a safe-haven asset; vice versa.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
Announcement address: http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?page=14
American Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, published by the Richmond Fed, includes manufacturing shipments, new orders, undelivered orders, and inventory. It provides current manufacturing activity and mails it to 220 business organizations. It is one of the indicators for measuring industrial inflationary pressures. If the data is better than expected or higher than the previous value, it indicates that the US manufacturing situation has improved, and the risk preference in the market will be higher, and the US dollar will fall. On the contrary, it will benefit the US dollar.
Importance: ★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Announcement address: http://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_conditions/manufacturing_conditions/index.cfm
Leading US indicator
Leading Indicators, published by the US Economic and Social Council, is a future development trend that assesses the overall US economy, including employment, manufacturing average weekly hours, initial jobless claims, building permits, stock prices, and yield curves. It is an important indicator of the steady growth of the US economy. This data will have an impact on the dollar's movements. If the published data is higher than expected, indicating that the US economy is growing well, this will stimulate risk appetite in the market, making the dollar as a safe-haven currency unpopular and bearish against the US dollar; otherwise it will benefit the US dollar.
Importance: ★★
Announcement time: monthly announcement
Announced by: Conference Board
Announcement address: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/indicators.cfm
American ABC Consumer Confidence Index
The ABC Consumer Comfort Consumer Confidence Index was jointly investigated by the ABC News channel and the Washington Post Washington post. A telephone interview with hundreds of Americans to assess their confidence in the current economy. The survey focused on the financial situation of the individual consumer and the current willingness to spend.
The ABC Consumer Confidence Index is published once a week, making it the most time-sensitive
